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Alert History

Regime alerts, measured after the fact.

Each alert is tracked against public benchmark assets at 1, 5, and 20 day horizons.

Updated 2026-06-05 19:39 27 tracked
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.15% SPY BTC-USD -2.3% · GLD +0.1% · QQQ -0.4% · SPY -0.2%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.02% SPY BTC-USD -1.1% · GLD +0.1% · QQQ -0.1% · SPY 0.0%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.17% SPY BTC-USD -2.4% · GLD +0.2% · QQQ +0.2% · SPY +0.2%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.38% SPY BTC-USD -1.2% · GLD +0.8% · QQQ -0.5% · SPY +0.4%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.38% SPY BTC-USD -1.8% · GLD +0.8% · QQQ -0.5% · SPY +0.4%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 100% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.38% SPY BTC-USD -0.3% · GLD +0.8% · QQQ -0.5% · SPY +0.4%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.31% SPY BTC-USD -4.8% · GLD +0.7% · QQQ -0.5% · SPY +0.3%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.36% SPY BTC-USD -5.1% · GLD +1.0% · QQQ -0.2% · SPY +0.4%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.11% SPY BTC-USD -6.2% · GLD +0.8% · QQQ -0.7% · SPY +0.1%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.33% SPY BTC-USD -6.5% · GLD -0.2% · QQQ -0.7% · SPY -0.3%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.33% SPY BTC-USD -6.6% · GLD -0.2% · QQQ -0.7% · SPY -0.3%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.30% SPY BTC-USD -6.3% · GLD -0.2% · QQQ -0.6% · SPY -0.3%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 watch 83% confidence partial validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.27% SPY BTC-USD -7.7% · GLD -0.2% · QQQ -0.5% · SPY -0.3%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.35% SPY BTC-USD -7.2% · GLD -0.5% · QQQ -0.6% · SPY -0.4%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.19% SPY BTC-USD -9.4% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ -0.3% · SPY -0.2%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D-0.19% SPY BTC-USD -9.7% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ -0.3% · SPY -0.2%
Recovery shadow daily
2026-05-16 strong 92% confidence validated
1D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
5D0.00% SPY BTC-USD 0.0% · GLD 0.0% · QQQ 0.0% · SPY 0.0%
20D+0.24% SPY BTC-USD -15.5% · GLD -1.6% · QQQ +0.6% · SPY +0.2%
Recovery weight shifted
2026-05-15 strong 92% confidence validated
1D-0.34% SPY BTC-USD -3.0% · GLD -0.1% · QQQ -0.4% · SPY -0.3%
5D-1.07% SPY BTC-USD -2.3% · GLD -1.5% · QQQ -1.5% · SPY -1.1%
20D+1.69% SPY BTC-USD -20.9% · GLD -2.3% · QQQ +4.6% · SPY +1.7%
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